Approaches to risk analysis, crisis management and resilience enhancement for Critical Infrastructure (CI) Protection will be considered starting from a case study related to the management of the pandemic in Italy. Business continuity and crisis management models for CI are analysed aiming to deal with complexity and reduce uncertainty relating pandemic and long-time crisis. Furthermore, is presented a methodology highlighting the functioning of the Italian Civil Protection and its systemic nature: a complex apparatus made up of different elements and organizations, which derives from the functioning of different organizational systems in interaction with each other. As a baseline for the coordination management the Augustus Method is considered for its strategical, tactical and operational aspects. One of the main outputs of the research consists in creating a “what if” forecasting model, configured as a visualization of the propagation of negative effects on the supply chain and manpower over time.

 Keywords: complex system, emergency management, manpower, cascading effects, resilience

1. Introduction

Dealing with complexity and reducing uncertainty during 2020 crisis is a priority, for Countries, Critical Infrastructures, and companies.

Due to the interdependency of Critical Infrastructures, companies, and the civil society their protection and management represent a significant challenge and, somehow, an opportunity.

The present contribution aims to support the understanding of the tangled pandemic scenario, studying the interdependencies between different sectors and their supply chain, proposing a model addressed to the complexity management for ensure the Business Continuity both of Critical Infrastructure and companies.

The Italian response to the crisis generated by the pandemic was observed, from the study of the impact of the crisis on Critical Infrastructures, to the response strategies, the remediation plans, passing through the reference standards on business continuity and supply chain (in the ISO family of standards).

The imposed lockdown has led to a forced acceleration of digitization, with the challenges and opportunities that could be derived from it.

The crisis management, supported by the experience generated by the avian influenza, together with the support tools provided by the Italian government has proved to be effective and efficient, also relaunching several SMEs through their productive conversion.

The human factor has become evident as the cornerstone of any service, from the provision of essential services falling within the competence of the Critical Infrastructures, which have involved a particular attention to the continuous security and business protocols to be followed, to the most disparate production sectors. It is also necessary to remember how the interconnection between the different sectors and services now characterizes our reality, and therefore how the so call “What-If Analysis” s fundamental in the development of decision support tools for crisis management. In this context is clear that resilience is founded on risk analysis and the drawing of recovery plans, together with measures for an increased control over the value chain.

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